How hot will it be on Christmas Day?

16 December 2019

Weather forecasting is one of the oldest forms of predictive analytics. One data source we often look at here at The Red Fox Group is weather data. 

While we don’t have any trained meteorologists on staff (so please don’t ask for detailed forecasts!), we can look at how the weather may be impacting your business performance. Do your retail sales slump or outperform on rainy days? Do more people visit your website when they’re stuck inside on cold days?

But given Christmas is getting nearer, we thought we’d take a look at what to expect on Christmas Day.

In Australia the Bureau of Meteorology compiles and makes publicly available observation data from thousands of weather stations around the country (with 762 stations currently reporting temperature data). We’ve analysed historic data for the last hundred years for the state capitals, here is what we’ve found…

On an average Christmas Day the mainland state capitals tend to reach the mid-to-high twenties. Perth, Brisbane and to a lesser extent Adelaide tend to be warmer than Sydney and Melbourne. Hobart is noticeably cooler than any of them. If you’re on the mainland, then chances are it will be hotter than 25 degrees. But as the graph shows, there’s a lot of variation!

Melbourne has a higher record Christmas Day temperature than Sydney – but its coolest ever Christmas Day was also cooler than Sydney’s. As will surprise no one who’s been there, Melbourne’s temperature is simply more variable.

In the last century the hottest Christmas Day in any capital city was in Perth, which hit a scorching 42 degrees in 1968.

Unsurprisingly, the coolest maximum was in Hobart, which reached just 12.6 degrees in 1984.

On Christmas Day last year the hottest capital city was Adelaide, which hit 37.9 degrees.

We are not meteorologists. Don’t ask us what the temperature will be next Wednesday.

But we can use weather data to help understand and predict things. Such as the number of people attending sporting matches, visiting cultural institutions, or buying particular products.

Regardless of what the weather is like on Christmas Day, we here at The Red Fox Group wish you and your clients all the best for a great break.